The Pentagon's judgments about the world have generally proved sounder than the CIA's. In the 1960s, the CIA said that the Soviets wouldn't put missiles in Cuba; in the 1970s, that their missiles weren't accurate; in the 1980s, that the missile budget wouldn't bankrupt Moscow; and in the 1990s, that Russia's democratic reforms were irreversible. In each case, the Pentagon argued the opposite case, and turned out to be right. Similarly, in the 1980s, the CIA said that the Soviets weren't sponsoring terrorism, and then, in the 1990s, that Sunni and Shiite terrorists wouldn't cooperate. In each case, again, the Pentagon rightly claimed otherwise. (Mark Riebling)

The Pentagon's judgments about the world have generally proved sounder than the CIA's. In the 1960s, the CIA said that the Soviets wouldn't put missiles in Cuba; in the 1970s, that their missiles weren't accurate; in the 1980s, that the missile budget wouldn't bankrupt Moscow; and in the 1990s, that Russia's democratic reforms were irreversible. In each case, the Pentagon argued the opposite case, and turned out to be right. Similarly, in the 1980s, the CIA said that the Soviets weren't sponsoring terrorism, and then, in the 1990s, that Sunni and Shiite terrorists wouldn't cooperate. In each case, again, the Pentagon rightly claimed otherwise.

Mark Riebling

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